Mark Yusko's Outlook for the Markets 2Q 2013

Mark Yusko's Second Quarter 2013 Review and Outlook by Zach Kouwe

Oaktree's Howard Marks on the Outlook for Equities

Howard Marks: The Outlook for Equities

QB Asset Management - The Fed's Exit

By Zach Kouwe

QB Asset Management - The Fed's Exit

Oaktree Sees a Bubble Brewing in the Debt Market

By Zach Kouwe

The always interesting Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management shares his latest thoughts on where we are in the market today. Hint: He is seeing a huge bubble brewing in the debt markets as investors reach for yield in junk bonds and accept larger risks in Treasuries. Marks is one of my favorite investment managers, primarily because he started a firm that invests in all sorts of complex financial instruments and works on behalf of large, sophisticated investors such as pension funds, but still finds a way to explain his thoughts in a way that can be easily understood by people with little background in finance. 

Marks' public relations skills have enabled him to become a leading voice in the investment community. All he has to do now is get on social media and he can raise his profile even more. Sally Krawcheck, formerly of Merrill Lynch, has done this successfully as I mention in RIABiz. Thought leadership pieces like this one below are important for any company, no matter what industry, to demonstrate to the public their unique philosophies and position in the market.   

Latest Letter from Oaktree Capital Management's Howard Marks 1-08-2012 by Zach Kouwe

Bridgewater Thinks Hedge Funds Aren't Really Worth It

By Zach Kouwe

A recent note from Bridgewater Associates, the largest independent hedge fund in the world, seems to support the view that most hedge funds aren't worth the high fees investors pay. Bridgewater's evidence comes from the high correlation the majority of hedge funds have with the stock market, especially since the Financial Crisis. In hedge fund speak, most funds are not delivering alpha (a return that's better than the market overall.) 


Bridgewater's conclusion is fairly simple:

One of the primary appeals of hedge funds to institutional investors is the prospect of generating absolute returns. i.e. similar returns in up and down markets. However, we continue to see that hedge fund returns are dominated by beta, in particular, the return of equities. Since institutional investors already have a concentrated exposure in equities, hedge funds have not been a good diversifier.  

Bridgewater Daily Observations on Hedge Fund Returns and Beta

Oaktree's Howard Marks on "What's Behind the Downturn"

By Zach Kouwe

If there's one investment guru that can make some sense of craziness in the markets over the last month it's Oaktree Capital Management's Chairman Howard Marks. Oaktree, of course, is the $80 billion alternative investment management firm that filed to go public in June. That should tell you a little something about Marks' outlook for the economy. In his new letter to clients, out tonight, Marks gives his views on what's behind the downturn. The full letter is embedded below, but here's some highlights:

My overall vision continues to be of an airplane rising weakly, perhaps overloaded or with an engine sputtering and thus having difficulty getting above “stall speed.” Its sluggishness constitutes a drag and introduces risk, but predicting deceleration is going too far . . . and not necessary to convince us to remain cautious in deciding on our course of action.

So, as is often the case, the swing we’ve had is more in psychology than in fundamentals. The positives of June are diminished, forgotten or eclipsed, and now investors are preoccupied with the negatives. As usual, the truth probably lies in between.

Thus right now I would be a better buyer, albeit in moderation since fundamentals still pose threats.  I feel the prosperity we enjoyed in the final decades of the twentieth century was considerably better than “normal,” and better than we’re likely to see up ahead. I’m not implying a world without growth or otherwise permanently negative. Just one without the prosperity, dynamism or positive feelings of past decades.

Howard Marks on What's Behind the Downturn 09-07-11